The Sunbelt’s Growing Population Faces Increasing Climate Hazards

Wildfires, Drought, and Heat Pose Rising Threats to Southern U.S. Communities

The Sunbelt region, already home to many rapidly growing cities, is bracing for an even more uncertain future. As climate change accelerates, the southern half of the U.S. faces an escalating threat from wildfires, extreme heat, and droughts. And it’s not just the land that’s at risk. A new study reveals that the region’s expanding population—many of whom are low-income communities of color—will bear the brunt of these climate hazards in the coming decades.

The latest research from the U.S. Forest Service and Resources for the Future highlights how climate risks are becoming increasingly intertwined with population growth. As more people flock to the Sunbelt—spurred by booming economies and warmer climates—the region is expected to experience greater exposure to natural disasters, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in many of these communities. The findings suggest that while some parts of the country will be hit harder by these hazards, the Sunbelt’s explosive growth, coupled with historical inequities, makes it particularly at risk.

Climate Hazards and Growing Populations: A Dangerous Mix

The report, titled Changing Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability in the Conterminous United States, 2020–2070, is a collaboration between the U.S. Forest Service and Resources for the Future. It projects how changing climate conditions will impact counties across the U.S., particularly those that are already grappling with social vulnerability and rapid population increases.

Researchers focused on three key hazards: water shortages, extreme heat, and wildfires. As the climate warms, these threats are expected to intensify. The study revealed alarming trends across several Sunbelt states, with Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Florida emerging as particularly vulnerable. Some of the nation’s most populous counties, many of which are already dealing with disparities in income, race, and access to resources, will see their climate risks multiply.

Here’s what the data shows:

• Water Shortages: Between 31 and 65 percent of counties at risk of water shortages by 2070 also have large, socially vulnerable populations.
• Heat Stress: 46 to 68 percent of counties experiencing high heat stress by mid-century also face similar demographic challenges.
• Wildfire Risk: While wildfire risk is a growing threat, only 5 to 19 percent of counties at high wildfire risk overlap with areas of high population density and vulnerability.

The overlap between high-risk counties for drought and heat stress, and those with vulnerable populations, paints a grim picture of the future. The study suggests that as the climate warms, these areas will face compounded threats, making it even harder for local governments to manage and protect vulnerable communities.

Wildfires: A Less Obvious Threat with Dire Consequences

While water shortages and extreme heat dominate climate change discussions, wildfires have emerged as a growing concern. Wildfires in the Sunbelt are already becoming more frequent and intense, fueled by the region’s scorching heat and drought conditions. Yet, the study found that wildfire-prone counties don’t always have the same overlap with large, vulnerable populations.

This presents a tricky dilemma for policymakers and first responders. While many of the Sunbelt’s most densely populated areas are not in the direct line of fire when it comes to wildfires, the risk of widespread devastation remains high. Fires can spread rapidly across dry landscapes, putting homes, infrastructure, and lives at risk. More importantly, the study suggests that the impacts of these fires will disproportionately affect already vulnerable communities—especially low-income families who have fewer resources to recover.

As the U.S. Forest Service’s Claire O’Dea puts it: “Decision makers have to think about more than just how the landscapes are changing. They need to consider how those changes will impact the public and how to allocate resources accordingly.”

The Social Dimension of Climate Vulnerability

What makes the Sunbelt’s climate crisis particularly alarming is its deep social dimensions. Many of the counties most at risk from heat and drought are home to large immigrant populations, communities of color, and low-income families. These groups are already dealing with systemic inequities, including limited access to healthcare, housing, and financial resources.

The study found that those in high-risk areas for heat stress and drought tend to be more vulnerable due to existing inequalities. They are less likely to have the means to adapt to climate-related challenges, whether through improved housing, cooling systems, or access to emergency services. It’s not just about surviving the effects of climate change—it’s about enduring the ongoing struggles that accompany these hazards.

Rural areas are particularly exposed, as they often lack the infrastructure to respond to natural disasters. In addition, many of these communities are historically marginalized, with limited political clout to secure necessary protections or recovery aid.

What’s Next for the Sunbelt?

So, what should be done to protect the Sunbelt’s growing population from these mounting climate threats? According to the study’s authors, the answer isn’t straightforward. Policymakers will need to balance the needs of communities that are both large and vulnerable to climate change. It’s about prioritizing resources and creating solutions that account for both population growth and climate impacts.

With the Sunbelt continuing to grow, it’s clear that climate change is an issue that demands urgent attention. The good news? It’s not too late to start making changes. Local governments, developers, and residents alike can begin to prepare for these challenges by focusing on building more resilient communities, investing in green infrastructure, and addressing the deep inequities that exist.

But as O’Dea points out, the problem is not only about planning for the future—it’s about acting now. “The implications of these findings are significant,” she said. “Without action, the impacts of climate change will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable populations.”