Incumbent Congressman Holds Narrow Edge as Maricopa County Continues to Count Ballots
As new results continue to trickle in, incumbent U.S. Representative David Schweikert (R) remains in the lead in Arizona’s First Congressional District race, despite an early night setback. The updated numbers, released Wednesday evening, show Schweikert with 51.2% of the vote, leading his Democratic opponent, Amish Shah, who has 48.8%.
The race, which had initially seemed tight after early ballots were counted on election night, shifted in Schweikert’s favor as more ballots from Maricopa County were tallied. As of 7 p.m. Wednesday, 127,000 additional ballots had been processed, but the Associated Press has yet to call the race, with Maricopa County’s final results still pending.
The county, home to nearly 60% of Arizona’s registered voters, is expected to take up to two weeks to finalize its count. Maricopa’s slow pace of counting is not unusual, given the high volume of ballots cast. The results still hang in the balance, and with several days left before a winner is officially declared, the fate of this closely watched race remains uncertain.
A Tight Race for Arizona’s Affluent District
Arizona’s First Congressional District covers portions of central and northern Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, and Cave Creek—areas known for their affluence. Schweikert, who has represented the district since 2011, has made his mark on the national stage, though not without controversy.
This year, Schweikert faced the most serious challenge of his political career. Despite his reputation as a fiscal conservative, his narrow reelection in 2022 made him one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2024 election. However, his campaign’s focus on economic issues appears to have resonated with voters. An exit poll by the Washington Post revealed that 32% of voters ranked the economy as their top concern, with only 14% mentioning abortion as a key issue.
Schweikert’s support for policies that emphasize fiscal restraint and lower taxes may have been a draw for voters in the district, where economic concerns often take precedence. His stance on social issues, particularly his opposition to abortion rights, contrasts with the views of many constituents, especially following Arizona’s resounding approval of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution. However, it seems that his economic messaging was enough to keep him ahead, at least for now.
Amish Shah’s Campaign Focus on Abortion Rights
Amish Shah, a former state lawmaker and emergency room doctor, has centered his campaign on healthcare access, including abortion rights. Shah resigned from his position in the Arizona legislature in January to focus on his congressional bid against Schweikert. His candidacy also gained attention due to his strong stance on reproductive rights, an issue that has become a focal point in Arizona politics since voters approved the constitutional amendment protecting abortion access.
Despite Shah’s strong position on abortion and healthcare, his lead has not been enough to overcome Schweikert’s economic platform in the district. While abortion access is a top issue for many, especially in light of the recent state constitutional amendment, the district’s focus on economic issues might have worked to Schweikert’s advantage.
Schah, like many Democratic candidates across the state, also campaigned on the importance of restoring access to abortion services. But while his message resonated with some voters, it hasn’t yet put him over the top in what is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck contest.
Maricopa County’s Central Role in the Outcome
Maricopa County’s pivotal role in the race cannot be overstated. As the largest and most populous county in Arizona, its results will largely determine the outcome of this election. It is estimated that nearly 2.1 million ballots were cast across the state, with almost 1.5 million already counted in Maricopa County by Wednesday evening. However, election officials have warned that a complete count could take up to 13 more days, meaning a final result may not be available until mid-November.
This extended counting period, due to the sheer volume of mail-in and early ballots, has made for a drawn-out election process. As a result, both campaigns are bracing for what could be a prolonged wait before a winner is officially declared. While Schweikert has maintained a slim lead, the race is still too close to call, and every new round of counting could shift the results in either direction.
Controversies and Challenges for Schweikert
Schweikert’s career has not been without its challenges. He has faced significant scrutiny over campaign finance violations in recent years. In 2020 and 2022, the Federal Election Commission and the House Ethics Committee fined Schweikert a total of $175,000 for campaign finance violations, including failing to report loans and using campaign funds for non-campaign expenses. These issues have prompted some skepticism about his leadership, particularly among more progressive voters.
However, Schweikert’s ability to maintain a lead despite these controversies speaks to the strength of his economic-focused messaging and his solid base of support within the district.
The Final Days of the Election
As Arizona’s First Congressional District race remains undecided, all eyes are on Maricopa County, where ballots continue to be counted. Schweikert’s lead over Shah may still hold, but with the county expected to release results over the next few days, there’s still time for the situation to change. The 2024 election has been marked by close contests and rising political tension, and the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District is no exception.
While some results are in, the full picture won’t be clear for several more days. As such, both candidates will likely continue to monitor the tally closely, hoping for the final surge of support they need to secure victory. But for now, Schweikert maintains his lead—at least until the next round of results is released.
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