Montana’s political landscape shifted slightly in favor of Democrats after redistricting, but Republicans remain firmly in control of the state Legislature, retaining significant majorities in both chambers.
After Tuesday’s election, Democrats picked up key seats in the Montana Senate and House, narrowing the GOP’s overwhelming majorities. Despite this shift, Republicans will continue to dominate the legislature, albeit without the supermajority they enjoyed in the past.
Democrats Make Inroads, But GOP Keeps Majority
Democrats in Montana are celebrating some victories, but the overall picture still shows Republican dominance in the state Legislature. The GOP has maintained a strong presence, even though redistricting and this week’s election results shifted the balance slightly in favor of the Democrats.
With about 560,000 votes counted so far, Democrats have gained two seats in the Senate and nine in the House. If the results hold, Republicans will still have a commanding lead with a 32-18 majority in the Senate and a 59-41 majority in the House. In 2023, Republicans held a 34-16 advantage in the Senate and a 68-32 lead in the House.
These changes, while notable, were largely expected. Redistricting had set the stage for a more competitive environment, but Republicans had anticipated this shift, with Democrats hoping for a net gain of about 10 seats across both chambers.
The Senate: A Mixed Bag for Both Parties
In the Senate, the most closely watched races were in three districts that could go either way. Senate District 2, in the Flathead Valley, was a key battleground, along with Senate District 21, which covers the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations, and Senate District 24 in Billings.
Democrat Dave Fern’s victory in Senate District 2 was a significant win for his party, as he defeated Republican Doug Adams by a narrow 52% to 48%. This was a tough contest, with the Flathead Valley being a historically conservative area.
However, Republicans were able to hold onto the other two toss-up districts. Gayle George Lammers secured Senate District 21, defeating Democrat Sharon Stewart Peregoy with a 57% to 43% margin. In Senate District 24, Republican Mike Yakawich triumphed over Democrat Mark Nicholson, winning 54% to 46%.
“Senators Yakawich and Lammers pulled off major victories in those tough districts last night and are a major reason why we’re heading into the 2025 session with such strong majorities,” said Senate President Jason Ellsworth.
House: Republicans Hold Strong, Democrats Gain Seats
In the House, incumbents in some of the state’s more contested districts held on tight, and Democrats netted nine new seats, roughly in line with expectations following the redistricting. While some races remain too close to call, especially in Yellowstone and Gallatin counties, Democrats have expressed satisfaction with the results.
Scott McNeil, director of the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said the results show that Montanans are rejecting the idea of a Republican supermajority. “Montanans made it clear on Tuesday that they wanted to rein in a Republican supermajority that was focused on getting involved in their personal lives and not on the issues they care about,” McNeil said.
The shift in the House still leaves Republicans in a strong position, but the additional seats for Democrats mean they will have more leverage during the 2025 legislative session.
Redistricting and the Political Shifts
University of Montana’s Rob Saldin noted that the changes in the Legislature’s makeup are largely due to the recent redistricting process. “You can’t really compare this to two years ago, the pickups are almost entirely a function of new district lines out of the reapportionment process,” he said.
Even so, Democrats have managed to pick up more seats than expected in the Senate, while the House is more reflective of what political analysts had predicted before the election.
If the results hold, the legislative makeup will closely resemble that of the 2017 body, which had a 59-41 split in the House and a 32-18 split in the Senate, both controlled by Republicans.
Looking Ahead to 2025
While the shift in power is relatively modest, it does set the stage for an interesting legislative session come January 2025. The new legislative body will meet next Tuesday for caucus meetings, where they will elect leadership for the upcoming session.
Senate Republicans are expected to keep their leadership positions, with figures like Senate President Jason Ellsworth and Senate Majority Leader Shane Morigeau holding onto their influential roles. Senate Democrats will likely re-elect Sen. Pat Flowers as their minority leader.
The 2025 session will focus on key issues like Medicaid expansion and the rising cost of living in Montana, where both parties will try to advance their respective priorities despite the Republicans’ retained majorities.
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