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How America Lost Control of Bird Flu: Lessons Unlearned, Risks Amplified

A Crisis Spreading Beyond Dairy Farms

Images of desperate farmers hydrating sick cows en masse at the World Dairy Expo shocked experts like Keith Poulsen, a livestock veterinarian at the University of Wisconsin. Poulsen, used to treating individual cases, was unprepared for the battlefield-like efforts to save hundreds of dairy cows stricken with bird flu. These efforts exemplify the unprecedented scale of the outbreak, which shows no signs of abating a year after it emerged in the United States.

The virus, once confined to a handful of states, has now spread to 845 herds across 16 states, highlighting the U.S. government’s failure to act decisively in its early stages. The slow response has eroded trust in the system’s ability to contain the virus, with experts warning of dire consequences if the situation escalates further.

A Perfect Storm of Failures

Interviews with nearly 70 stakeholders, including government officials, farmers, and health experts, reveal a troubling pattern of missed opportunities and systemic issues that allowed the outbreak to spiral. Key factors include:

  • Deference to the Farm Industry: Regulatory agencies hesitated to impose strict measures that might upset the powerful agriculture sector.
  • Eroded Public Health Budgets: Decades of underfunding left local health departments ill-equipped to respond.
  • Neglected Worker Safety: Farmworkers were left vulnerable, with little emphasis on preventing disease spread.
  • Slow Federal Action: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) only recently ordered nationwide milk testing, months after the outbreak took hold.

“It’s disheartening to see so many of the same failures from the COVID-19 crisis resurface,” said Tom Bollyky of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Costs Mount as Virus Spreads

The financial toll of the outbreak has been staggering. Since 2022, the USDA has allocated over $1.7 billion to mitigate bird flu on poultry farms and an additional $430 million to address its impact on dairy farms. Yet these efforts have fallen short, as the virus continues to claim lives and livelihoods.

  • Impact on Dairy Farms:
    • Mortality Rate: 2–5% of infected cows die.
    • Milk Production Loss: Infected herds see a 20% drop in output.

The economic burden is only part of the story. The virus’s ability to mutate raises the specter of a pandemic, with significant human and societal costs.

Pandemic Potential: A Grim Prospect

Experts are sounding alarms about the bird flu’s potential to jump species and spark a pandemic. To date, over 60 people in the U.S. have been infected, primarily through contact with poultry or dairy cattle. The first human case with no such contact was recently reported in Missouri, underscoring the virus’s adaptability.

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, described the risks bluntly: “I don’t know if bird flu will become a pandemic, but if it does, we’re screwed.”

The virus’s potential for mutation is especially concerning. Each infection in humans or animals offers an opportunity for the virus to evolve into a form capable of efficient person-to-person transmission.

States Struggle to Coordinate

The outbreak has exposed glaring weaknesses in coordination between federal and state agencies. Internal records show that early in the crisis, several states struggled to align their bird flu response efforts. This disarray likely allowed the virus to gain a foothold, making containment far more difficult.

The USDA’s delayed interventions, including its nationwide milk-testing order, reflect a broader trend of reactive, rather than proactive, measures.

What Lies Ahead?

The future of the bird flu crisis depends on multiple factors, including federal leadership, the virus’s evolution, and natural forces. What is certain, however, is that billions more will likely be spent combating this outbreak, and the stakes could not be higher.

For now, the nation watches and waits, bracing for what comes next in a saga that echoes past public health failures—and offers a sobering reminder of the costs of inaction.

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