Ruben Gallego Maintains Lead Over Kari Lake in Tight Arizona Senate Race

The race for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat remains tight as Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego continues to lead Republican Kari Lake, though many of Lake’s supporters still cling to the hope that she can secure a late victory.

Despite Gallego’s lead of roughly 59,980 votes—2.5 percentage points ahead—over Lake as of November 6, the outcome remains uncertain with an estimated 1 million votes still left to be counted. This uncertainty has sparked heated rhetoric from both sides, with Lake’s supporters voicing baseless claims of election fraud.

Gallego’s Steady Lead and Optimism

As of Wednesday evening, with more than 2.5 million votes tallied, Gallego stood at 52.2%, while Lake had 47.7%, according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. Gallego, who has represented Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House since 2015, has expressed optimism about his lead.

“We are closely watching as results come in, and we’re feeling very optimistic,” Gallego posted on X, formerly Twitter, early Wednesday afternoon. “This team has worked tirelessly to connect with Arizonans across the state, and I’m proud of the campaign we’ve run.”

While the Associated Press has yet to call the race, Gallego’s continued leadership in the vote count suggests he remains in a favorable position. His platform, which includes a focus on affordable living, abortion rights, and border security, has garnered strong support, even among some moderate Republicans.

Kari Lake’s Strong Following and Election Fraud Claims

On the other hand, Lake’s campaign has continued to stoke claims of election fraud. These claims mirror those she made in her 2022 bid for governor, where she lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Despite ample evidence showing no widespread fraud, Lake’s most vocal supporters have insisted that the election was “stolen.”

Among these supporters is Josh Barnett, a far-right conspiracy theorist, who took to social media to claim that the election was rigged. “I’m not buying it,” he posted on X. “I told our state legislature this is what would happen when we don’t have properly and legally run elections.”

The baselessness of these allegations only adds fuel to the fire of an already bitter political battle. However, Lake’s campaign has continued to urge her supporters to address any ballot issues, including signature verification and provisional ballot concerns, to ensure their votes are counted.

Tensions Between Gallego and Lake

The fight between Gallego and Lake has been heated, marked by accusations and personal attacks. Gallego, a former U.S. Marine, has emphasized his commitment to supporting the working class, tackling inflation, and providing a balanced approach to immigration reform.

Meanwhile, Lake has maintained a hardline stance on border security, calling for the completion of Trump’s border wall and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. She has also sought to align Gallego with the policies of President Joe Biden, particularly his stance on immigration, which she refers to as “open borders.”

One of the significant shifts during the campaign was Lake’s evolving position on abortion. Initially, she advocated for a more hardline anti-abortion stance but has recently moderated her views, creating confusion among her base and giving Gallego ammunition to attack her on this issue.

Republican Support for Gallego

Despite his Democratic affiliation, Gallego has managed to attract some moderate Republicans, particularly in the aftermath of Lake’s extreme rhetoric and divisive campaign style. Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican, expressed his concerns about Lake’s candidacy, stating that he couldn’t support a candidate who engaged in such vitriol.

Additionally, former staffers of the late Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain have also shown their support for Gallego, citing his more measured approach and willingness to work across the aisle on key issues.

Lake’s Legal Battle and the Shadow of 2022

Even as she campaigns for the Senate, Lake continues to challenge the results of the 2022 gubernatorial race. She has refused to concede to Katie Hobbs, and her persistent election denialism has led to ongoing legal battles. Recently, she faced a defamation lawsuit from Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, after she falsely accused him of rigging the 2022 election against her.

These ongoing legal issues, paired with her combative rhetoric, have raised concerns among some voters who worry about her ability to serve in the Senate.

Key Race Data and Current Standings

While Gallego leads, the race is still too close to call. With over 1 million votes yet to be counted, the situation could change as more ballots are tallied in the coming days.